HALDIMAND—Haldimand councillors got a look at an updated growth forecast, which expects Haldimand’s population will reach 82,700 people by the year 2051.
That growth represents an increase of 31,000 new residents from 2021 to 2051. This includes an additional 12,820 households (total 31,500), and 10,300 new jobs (total 31,200) by the end of the forecast.
The forecast is provided every five years by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., with numbers up significantly from Watson’s last update in 2019, which predicted a population of 67,800 by 2046.
County Manager of Planning & Development Shannon Van Dalen said the regular reviews “ensure our population forecasts are on track” for consideration in policy development and planning.
Watson manager Adam Fischer compared Haldimand to similar municipalities: “In many places we’re seeing a substantial decline in 2023 and 2024 in building activity. That hasn’t been the case in Haldimand County, which is quite promising to see that the county has been able to sustain that level of growth for four years now, and the data is looking strong in that regard as well.”
Haldimand currently has nearly 5,000 active development applications that are either registered, under review, or draft approved. According to Watson, this level of development satisfies provincial requirements, with 3,140 of those applications currently approved as of 2024.
“Historically most of that permit activity has been low density, which is single or semi-detached housing units. We’re starting to see a shift towards medium, which is townhomes and duplexes, and to a lesser extent high density, which you would think of as apartments or secondary units. It certainly has been a shift towards townhouses in the last few years,” said Watson.
He added, “The trends that were witnessed over the last several years are expected to continue into the near term and potentially exaggerate slightly more, particularly as it comes to high density as we see all those units in the pipeline start to develop.”
However, of note, the presentation also predicts that by the end of 2051, three-quarters of Haldimand’s housing stock will still be low density despite the increase in other forms of housing.
The forecast shows a total of 2,659 low density units either registered, under review, or approved for development, with 948 medium density applications, and 1,255 high density ones. Nearly all planned development is happening within Haldimand’s six urban areas.
Below is a breakdown of where that growth is expected to be concentrated over the next three decades:
- Caledonia – 19,590 (62%)
- Hagersville – 5,640 (18%)
- Dunnville – 2,000 (6%)
- Rural areas – 1,800 (6%)
- Cayuga – 1,570 (5%)
- Jarvis – 670 (2%)
- Townsend – 260 (1%)
“As we do these exercises, the rural areas are an important component to growth, but when we’re looking at these development applications, we can see that they’re mostly urban,” said Fischer.
In the five years since Watson’s last forecast, Fischer iterated how growth pressures have changed for the county and at large.
“The growth outlook for the county has increased sizably enough to make an impact,” said Fischer.
As the Haldimand population continues to age (expected number of residents aged 75 and up is set to rise from 8% currently to 13% in 2051), Fischer noted, “That certainly has tax implications. It has many implications on having seniors’ facilities and all these other things…. That natural aging of the population is being offset largely by migration.”
Fischer noted “people from one end of Ontario migrating to another area of Ontario” will make for a much larger percent of Haldimand’s growth than out-of-country immigration.
“About 50% of that migration has come from Hamilton, Brant County, and Brantford. So quite local, but nonetheless, that is where people are coming from,” he said.
With that growth comes added pressure to create a job base that satisfies the needs of an increased population.
Of note, Fischer pinpointed Haldimand’s potential for industrial job growth as an opportunity to meet that demand.
“We do see a lot of opportunity in the industrial sector; a lot of GTHA (Greater Toronto & Hamilton Area) municipalities, their employment inventory is shrinking, so it’s going to place greater emphasis on municipalities just outside of that greater Toronto area to provide employment lands. We see a lot of opportunity here,” he concluded.
